Thursday, January 15

What could have been...

The current BCS formula paradigm has only been in place since 2004 so BCS standings before this do not correlate with the current values. Conference tie-ins and actual bowl selections were used to estimate what the selections of the BCS Bowls not involved in the championship system could have been.

2008:
5 teams: Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Utah, Boise State

Utah would have hosted Boise State for the chance to play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
Florida would have played Texas in the Wild Card Game.
The winners of these games would have met in the National Championship Game.

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

2007:
3 teams: Ohio State, LSU, Hawaii

LSU and Hawaii would have played in the Wild Card Game.
The winner of this game would have played Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Illinois
Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. (ASU or Boston College)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas

2006:
3 teams: Ohio State, Florida, Michigan, Boise State

Ohio State would have hosted Boise State in the Rose Bowl.
Florida would have played Michigan in the Wild Card Game.
The winners of these games would have met in the National Championship Game.

Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Louisville

2005:
2 teams: USC, Texas

Same as the current BCS system but the bowl format has changed since 2005

USC would have played Texas in the National Championship Game.

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl: FSU vs. TCU (would have been an automatic qualifier under current rules)

2004:
5 teams: USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah, Boise State

Utah would have hosted Boise State for the chance to play USC in the Rose Bowl.
Oklahoma would have played Auburn in the Wild Card Game.
The winners of these games would have met in the National Championship Game.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. California
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh

Teams left out:
At least two teams who felt they deserved national championship consideration are not included. Two prominent teams are USC 2008 and Georgia 2007.

Neither of these teams won all their games. Neither of these teams garnered enough support nationally to avoid a gap forming between them and the top teams in the standings.

To loosen the rules for these teams would greatly expand the structure of the system. This would be detrimental to the health of the economy of college football.

Prior Years:
Using the paradigm that the cutoff is at an average ranking difference of 1.5 it is possible to extent the simulation backwards to the older formulas. The cutoff in these systems would be a difference in the BCS formula of 3. BCS bowls are not listed due to difficulties steming from conference realignments.

2003:
3 teams: Oklahoma, LSU, USC

LSU would have hosted USC in the Wild Card Game.
The winner of this game would have played Oklahoma in the National Championship Game

2002:
2 teams: Miami (FL), Ohio State

Miami (FL) and Ohio State would have played in the National Championship Game.

2001:
1 teams: Miami (FL)

Use the second gap in the standings.
4 teams: Miami (FL), Nebraska, Colorado, Oregon

Miami (FL) would have hosted Oregon in the Orange Bowl.
Nebraska would host Colorado in the Wild Card Game.
The winners of these games would have met in the National Championship Game.

2000:
3 teams: Oklahoma, FSU, Miami (FL)
FSU would have hosted Miami (FL) in the Wild Card Game.
The winner of that game would have played Oklahoma in the National Championship Game.

1999:
3 teams: FSU, Virginia Tech, Marshall

Virginia Tech would have hosted Marshall in the Wild Card Game.
The winner of this game would have played FSU in the National Championship Game.

1998:
3 teams: Tennessee, FSU, Tulane

FSU would have hosted Tulane in the Wild Card Game.
The winner of this game would have played Tennessee in the National Championship Game.

Championship System distribution
A year with only one team happened in 2001, expanding to 4 teams.
A year with two teams happened twice, 2002 and 2005.
A year with three teams happened 5 times, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2007.
A year with four teams happened in 2006 and once after expanding from only one team in 2001.
A year with five teams happened twice, 2004, 2008.
No years with 6 or more teams have occurred.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment